29 April, 2021

World's Biggest Problem

World's biggest problem is logistics. Its biggest as in it has the largest share in the pie - no other problem occur as much time as it.

The logistics problem is: things are not where they are supposed to be. Its space problem. 

Materials are not where they are supposed to be. So do information and people. 

Things are usually not where they can be used. Things have to be brought there. 

Logistics is not just backbone of all operations. Its the operations. 

Logistics is the middle layer. Strategy (what to do) is above it, Tactics (how to do) is below it.

Once this problem - the problem of logistics - is solved specialization can happen. Only once the logistics problem is solved specialization can happen - there is no other path to specialization. 

Something other than the one using the materials/information/people have to provide the materials/information/people. When the user of these resources only use them - not also gather them - specialization is achieved.

Specialization, in time, achieves excellence.  

If a reliable connection is present exchange can happen.

Connection consists of two elements: physical path and supplier. Examples: copper wire is physical path, electric current is supplier of energy; highways are physical paths between cities, trucks are suppliers of materials and buses and cars etc are suppliers of people; arteries and veins are physical paths, blood is supplier of materials; etc.

Its convenient to have the physical path always present even when its not being used by a supplier. It would be very costly to have the physical path made everytime supplier have to use it. It can be done though, for example let water in a canal only when a supplier such as a boat has to use it and once its used let the water go elsewhere and then refill the canal with water next time a supplier has to use it. For safety purpose to limit the connection it can be done though. For example a draw bridge is put down only when its intended to be used. Likewise a computer's network cable can be removed when no network operation is required. 

Middle layer of management in an organization is responsible for providing necessary materials and information to users of the materials and information. The level of management below that, the low level, the supervisors for example, are responsible for tactics i.e. to solve day to day issues. The level of management above the middle level - the high level of management - is responsible for solving strategic issues which are always multi-year problems. 

Strategy is deciding what to do. Tactics is deciding how to do it. Operations i.e. logistics is none of that. Its just about deciding how to supply the materials/information/people to where they are needed.

Only once something else take the responsibility of providing the needed stuff the users can afford to specialize.

Its the specialization that leads to not only linear increase in effectiveness but also increase in effectiveness in other dimensions. 

The increase in effectiveness in other dimensions is increase in features. A single-cell organism for example has nothing that can be called as vision. Only in multi-cellular organisms enough cells can be devoted to make something called an eye. Likewise only a well-established-in-exchange society can have enough professionals to make an industry. 

Isolated villages can have no professionals. Every man has to do every needed work. They cannot even have workshops.

Isolated families have to fall down to be hunter-gatherers. All in family - men, women, children - have to be the hunter-gatherers. 

Family is the smallest unit of society. Specialization in family - father goes to work, mother takes care of house - can happen only when several families are living together, in a village for example. 

All men have to do all types of needed work as long as the village itself is isolated. Once a physical path is found or made to other villages exchange start to happen between villages. Professions still cannot be made because no supplier yet exist. Only when dedicated traders start to emerge producers can afford to focus on what they do best. Professions thus emerge among producers.

Trade solves the logistics problem in a society.

A well-supplied army generally fights well. No amount of strategy or tactics brilliance can fill the hole made by poor logistics management.

Warehouses give some breathing space when logistics problems arise. 

Solutions to logistics problem always decrease efficiency. Its in nature of such solutions, they cannot maintain efficiency and they cannot increase efficiency. They do increase effectiveness and always so, especially by adding features.

A militia cannot afford to have snipers for example. Only once the giant problem (remember its the biggest problem in the world) of acquiring resources is solved individuals can afford to be specialists. 

When logistics problem is solved, lots of resources do get wasted. You can count resources utilized by traders and path maintainers as used because they are doing something useful - though it do decrease efficiency - you cannot do so (count resources utilized as used) for significant amount of resources that just lay around users and are not utilized at all. Such resources though present where they are needed (logistics problem is the biggest problem, its not the only problem, and its not always present; sometimes resources are where they are needed) cannot be used by producers because now that we have solved the logistics problem they have become specialists and thus cannot acquire their own resources. A doctor even when living in a large villa cannot be expected to grow his own fruits for example. So, there is dependency and that dependency leads to wastage of  resources which lower the efficiency yet again. 

Logistics problem when not fully solved may result in scarcity problem. Its when the logistics problem is only partially solved i.e. the supplier is not reliable. The supplies in this case are intermittent, may present tomorrow, may not present tomorrow, the connection may be restored in a week or in a month, we cannot tell. 

The solution to scarcity problem is obviously storage (warehouses). This leads to problem of maintaining the warehouses. 

All in all the effectiveness boast is so high that one has to tolerate the resultant problems of solving the logistics problem. If you don't go that path and instead focus on self-sufficiency, whether you are a person, a village, a city, an organization or a society you will get wiped out. You will not get wiped out because you are any less efficient than your competitors. Infact you will be more efficient in what you do as compare to your competitors. Small units are always more efficient in resource utilization. So its not efficiency that kill you, its effectiveness. Your competitors would be able to do what you cannot, because they will have more features than you do. They can for example easily air bomb your medieval-technology country. Thats when you defend. When you attack you are almost guaranteed to fail because you haven't solved the logistics problem.

No comments:

Post a Comment